Aklog Birara (Dr.)
Ethiopia began the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a monumental project estimated to cost $4 billion in 2011, with fanfare and ceremony. I welcomed this initiative that was conceived by Emperor Haile Selassie but made virtually unattainable because of Egyptian rigidity and the prevailing diplomatic conditions at the time.
I continue to contend that Ethiopia serves as the origin of 90 percent of Nile waters and has a legitimate right not only to finish the GERD for electric power generation; but also, to construct other dams for irrigation. Egypt’s colonial position of “historical and natural rights” over the Abbay River and other tributaries of the Nile is no longer a winning proposition.
In my considered opinion, Egypt and its allies are trying to undermine Ethiopia’s development objectives by bolstering weaponizing ethnic and religious division. The widespread instability, arms trafficking, robbery, lawlessness and rebellion throughout Ethiopia is deliberate and well financed to dismantle Ethiopia. The ethnic-federal system and administrative structure that the TPLF with support from other ethnic parties and foreign governments imposed on the Ethiopian people has diminished Ethiopian national identity and replaced it with ethnic identity.
Ethiopia is now porous, vulnerable and weak. Its intuitions cater more to ethnic and religious elites and less to Ethiopian national goals. “Amhara, Oromo, Tigre etc. first” is a mantra that diminishes Ethiopian nationalism. This is the reason why Ethiopia in 2020 is identified as a “failing or failed state.” Remember the old adage “You reap what you sow.” The seeds of dismantlement were sown when the current nationality and language-based constitution was formalized. Ethiopia is the only country in Africa that incorporated secession. It is the only county in Africa that legalized ethnic political formation, with the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) that has now morphed into the Prosperity Party as Ethiopia’s pioneer in the ethnicization of politics.
While the ethnic coalition may have evolved, its roots, political culture, ideology, structure and institutional making are still intact. This setting diminishes Ethiopia’s capacity and resolve to defend its national interests. Its adversaries, including Egypt take advantage of this internal weakness.
Despite this disadvantage, I suggest strongly that the most reasonable policy option is for Egypt, Ethiopia and North Sudan to agree on an equitable and fair position that serves all countries. Ethiopia won’t remain weak and fragmented. Accordingly, allowing Ethiopia to finish the GERD is a prerequisite for future win-win options. If Egypt refuses to budge, Ethiopia should revert to other options, including constructions of numerous irrigation dams throughout the country. Irrigation dams will, in fact, have serious and adverse impacts on water volume than hydroelectric dams; and will affect Egypt.
Egypt should stop insisting that the filling of the Dam takes over many decades to ensure that Egypt is not affected. This position penalizes Ethiopia and reduces the economic benefits that accrue from Ethiopia’s investment. Ethiopia must not be penalized to mitigate Egyptian fears. The current impasse that United States, the World Bank and others are trying to mediate should not delay the timely completion of the GERD.
Egypt must honor international law and standards that every civilized nation accepts. Equally, the government of Ethiopia must be firm and unwavering. It must apply diplomatic pressure on Egypt; and must muster the will and resolve to defend Ethiopian national interests. Ethiopian opposition parties must support the project and express anger and resentment against Egypt’s proxy wars and propaganda.
Why does the impasse persist?