Joint IGAD–AU action is urgently needed to avoid further destabilisation of a region already wracked by violence.
Relations between Kenya and Somalia have been strained for some time over economic and maritime boundary issues. But new alliances in the region are now making the situation worse.
The latest dispute is over Kenya’s alleged interference in Somalia’s internal affairs. Countries in the Horn are being drawn into the battle, threatening to destabilise an already fragile region. Despite the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) engagement in the latest conflict, the regional body may not be able to resolve the problem alone.
The crisis calls for robust joint action by the African Union (AU) and IGAD with international partners’ support, departing from the usual AU-IGAD engagement. The AU should increase its role in the region and develop concrete strategies and actions to avoid a looming crisis in the Horn.
The Horn of Africa region
In December 2020, Somalia accused Kenya of interfering in its internal affairs and severed diplomatic ties – resulting in a mutual recall of their respective ambassadors. That month’s IGAD summit had endorsed a fact-finding mission led by Djibouti to look into Somalia’s allegations. The mission revealed that there wasn’t enough evidence to support Somalia’s claims.
Somalia rejected the mission’s findings, claiming that Kenya influenced Djibouti and that the conclusions therefore weren’t impartial. This accusation added another diplomatic confrontation in the region – between Somalia and Djibouti. Somalia also threatened to leave IGAD if the finding wasn’t reversed.
Kenya and Somalia have a longstanding unresolved maritime boundary dispute that officially started in 2014. Somalia sued Kenya at the International Court of Justice for unlawful operations in its maritime territory along the Indian Ocean. The case is still awaiting the court’s resolution.
Their relationship further deteriorated over the past few years, mainly over Somalia’s Jubbaland state, which borders Kenya. Jubbaland is a crucial security partner to Kenya in the battle against al-Shabaab. But Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) wants to centralise power and remove Jubbaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe).
The situation could divide the region by pitting neighbouring states against each other
A rearrangement of alliances in the region over the past three years has exacerbated the crisis. Ethiopia’s increased affiliation to Somalia’s central government (rather than its states) and Eritrea’s resumption of cooperation with Somalia after more than a decade of estranged relations, have boosted Somalia’s central government. The three nations cooperate and agree on various political, social and economic issues.
As a result, the 2019 Jubbaland election saw a tense confrontation between Somalia’s central government and Jubbaland soldiers backed by Ethiopian and Kenyan troops respectively. Kenya’s ally Madobe was re-elected – although the federal government immediately nullified the poll, disputing the process. Kenya meanwhile continued to recognise and cooperate with Madobe. These events worsened the confrontation between Kenya and Somalia over Jubbaland and left Ethiopia and Kenya at odds over Somalia.
The issue also affected Somalia’s ongoing election process. Somalia’s Foreign Ministry said Kenya’s alleged interference in Somalia’s internal affairs led to Jubbaland reneging on the September 2020 election agreement.
Source: issafrica.org