Introduction
The coronavirus has struck Ethiopia at a time when
the political and security situations in the country are
particularly precarious. Sporadic inter-communal and
insurgent violence have rocked the country since the
new government took office in April 2018. Competing
nationalist forces have created a volatile political
situation and debilitating internal divisions in the ruling
Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (now
transformed into the Prosperity Party) have contributed
to the conflict.
The Prosperity Party (PP) was in the process of
reorganising itself as a national party (rather than a
coalition of ethnic parties) with new ideologies and
programmes. State institutions have been fragile for
most of the past two years and, in many instances,
were unable to contain inter-communal violence
immediately and effectively.1
The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly have unintended consequences for
many important security and political developments in the country.
At the time of writing, Ethiopia had 272 reported cases of
COVID-19, with five deaths and 108 recoveries. Opinions
are divided about just how badly affected the country
will be by the pandemic.2
Some sources project that anywhere between 15 and 30 million of a total of
120 million people could be infected. The Ethiopian
Public Health Institute estimates that there could be
some 1.94 million cases by the end of May.3
A few recent projections, however, have been more
optimistic. According to one source,4 the fact that
Ethiopians tend not to congregate outside during the
rainy season, and the limited number of hospitals (which
are considered to be high zones of virus transmission)
may work in the country’s favour.
Other possible advantages cited in the same source
are that the country plays only a small role in the global
economy. The state’s historical capacity to organise
resources and people swiftly may also contribute to
containing the spread of the virus.5
The government has put in place several measures
to tackle COVID-19.6 These include closing borders
and shutting down schools and nightclubs, calling in
‘retired and in-training medical personnel’7
and imposing mandatory quarantine on all people entering Ethiopia
from abroad. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to
80 destinations.
Moreover, the government has announced a COVID-19
Multi-Sectoral Preparedness and Response Plan that
will cost US$1.64 billion. The funding will be spent in the
next three months on the provision of emergency food
and shelter, the health care system and ‘agricultural
sector support … the protection of vulnerable groups,
additional education outlays, logistics, refugees support
and site management support.’8
The government has also postponed the national elections, which were due to
have been held at the end of August, and enacted a five month state of emergency (SoE).
The political and security implications of the pandemic
will depend very much on its duration and reach. Even
if the virus is swiftly contained it will affect security and
the political transition in some ways and a prolonged and
widespread viral attack could have profound and lasting
consequences. Whatever the case, it is important to
consider both scenarios in order to introduce effective
coping mechanisms.
This policy brief examines the implications of COVID-19
and the government’s preventative measure for political
stability,9 especially in the short to medium term. It argues
that in the short term the disease and the preventative
measures could make the country less vulnerable to
organised political violence and more vulnerable to riots.
In the medium and long term, however, vulnerability to
both types of violence could increase, depending on
the capacity of political forces to instigate and manage
conflict and on their willingness to work together.
The road to instability could be averted by ironing out a
politically negotiated and constitutionally mandated way
of governing the country effectively when the SoE ends.10
It is also important that all parties work together both to
fight the pandemic and to ameliorate its effects.
