COMMENTARY / THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND DEADLY CONFLICT 15 APRIL 2020
Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Ethiopia has delayed elections slated for August and declared a state of emergency. Authorities should now consult with the opposition on how to manage the period ahead in order to smooth the country’s stuttering transition to multi-party democracy.
The arrival of COVID-19 could not have come at a more sensitive time for Ethiopia, which was due to hold pivotal elections in August after five years of political turmoil. On 31 March, some two weeks after authorities announced the first coronavirus case in Africa’s second-most populous country, the electoral board suspended preparations for the vote due to the public health risk. Then, on 10 April, parliament approved a five-month state of emergency, giving authorities sweeping powers to battle the disease. As elections will not occur before parliament’s term ends in early October, an interim governing arrangement will likely be necessary. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now faces the daunting task of stopping the virus from spreading while limiting economic harm to a vulnerable population that relies mostly on subsistence work. Key opposition parties have broadly accepted the emergency decree so long as the government does not use it as a tool for political repression. They have also signalled that they wish to be closely consulted in devising an interim arrangement for governing the country when parliament’s term ends. Abiy should heed their calls, and then work with them to tackle longer-term threats to the country’s democratic transition.
Addis Ababa’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak has been uneven. Authorities first confirmed the disease’s presence in Ethiopia on 13 March, two days after the World Health Organization categorised it as a global pandemic. Since then, confirmed infections have climbed steadily to 82, with three deaths announced. Testing, so far, has been limited by a lack of capacity, adding to uncertainty about the extent of the virus’s spread among a mostly rural population of around 110 million people. In the meantime, bucking policies elsewhere in East Africa, state carrier Ethiopian Airlines, whose hard currency earnings help fund essential imports, has continued flying wherever possible, including to Chinese and European destinations. While the federal and regional governments announced measures such as suspending large gatherings and inter-city public transport, authorities have not introduced a comprehensive lockdown to try to contain COVID-19. The disinclination to impose such measures probably reflects an effort to avoid what analysts predict could be at least one million job losses at a time when around two million young Ethiopians annually enter the labour market and the urban unemployment rate is approximately 20 per cent.
The coronavirus has the potential to sow chaos in Ethiopia due to the country’s already formidable economic and social challenges. On one hand, the public health risks presented by COVID-19 are vast. Living and working conditions are highly conducive for transmission, as people live in crowded inter-generational households that often lack running water. Allowing economic activity to continue unchecked could lead to millions of infections within months, with serious cases quickly overwhelming an already weak health system that has only a few hundred ventilators and fewer than 500 intensive care units. In 2016, only around 2 per cent of Ethiopia’s clinics had oxygen delivery devices.
Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/
