River of the Dammed: Ethiopian builders work on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near the Sudanese-Ethiopian border on March 31, 2015. ZACHARIAS ABUBEKER/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Ethiopia’s continued efforts to dam the Nile could end in war with Egypt. Here’s how to stop that from happening.
In October, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in starting peace negotiations with Eritrea. But his country is still in the middle of another major dispute that threatens regional stability. This one is over the waters of the Nile River, specifically, Ethiopia’s plans to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the river’s Blue Nile tributary. Egypt considers the dam to be a looming threat to its very survival. Ethiopia, on the other hand, sees the undertaking as essential for its development and has vowed to continue the project no matter the ramifications.
Ethiopia and Egypt are two of Africa’s most populous and powerful countries; any ongoing showdown between them is a major threat to peace, which is why the international community should press for an equitable settlement.
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Both countries have expressed their preference for a negotiated long-term settlement for the dispute, but the road there has not been smooth. A round of negotiations in early October—following many others over the last few years—failed to reach a compromise. Egypt accuses Ethiopia of dismissing concerns its officials have raised about the threat to its water security. Ethiopia insists that pending issues will be resolved before the completion of the dam.
Meanwhile, two other countries—Russia and the United States—have been looking for ways to mediate the dispute. Abiy and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi held a meeting on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi, Russia, in late October, during which they merely agreed to allow a technical committee to continue its work. Their host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, pledged to help them reach an accommodation.
The United States has invited Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, which is also affected by the dispute, for discussions in Washington. The three settled on a trilateral meeting on Nov. 6, which was also attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and World Bank President David Malpass. The three countries’ foreign ministers agreed on holding four technical meetings on the dam. They’ve noted that they hope to reach agreement by Jan. 15, but, failing that, the countries’ water ministers will refer the issue to their heads of state to seek further outside mediation. It is hard to know if Washington’s intervention will help reach an agreement before the new deadline, making genuine U.S. assistance pivotal in the endeavor.
Source: foreignpolicy
