Dr Mintwab Bezabih1* and Dr Belachew Tesfa2
1. Introduction
In 2011, Ethiopia began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River in a place called Guba, 60 kilometres from Sudan mainly for the electric power generation. In addition to the electric power supply, GERD benefits the downstream countries mainly Sudan and Egypt by removing up to 86% of silt and sedimentation, regulate the steady water flow throughout the year, avoid un-expected flooding to downstream countries and also conserve the
water in Ethiopian highlands by having lower evaporation and water recycling mechanisms (Tesfa, 2013).
The status of the project has been such that the two turbines in the left powerhouse were half completed, and could start generating 740MW of hydroelectric power as early as 2020 and the entire project is now 68% completed ( Belay, 2019).
In terms of cooperation with downstream countries, a series of discussions between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have been progressing, with the principles of filling GERD being one of the top most agenda. of the tripartite talks are being out in Washington DC, Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa.
So far, while the discussions have constructive tones, the three countries are yet to reach a joint agreement on the length of time it should take GERD’s reservoir to be filled. An important piece of information that could aid the negotiation process is quantifications of the losses and gains (if any) from delaying the filling.
For such purposes, understanding the gains/losses from a dam like GERD in different scenarios is important. Accordingly, the purpose of this discussion note is quantifying the losses in terms of energy/power and revenue across
different filling scenarios, using financial and cost benefit analysis method. The note will answer what is the optimum year to fill the dam given circumstances with the assumption of wet, normal, dry and extreme dry scenario.
